Many things can make a war effort a disaster not a success, and they can be nothing to do with fighting with arms and laying bodies on the line. The economic consequences of war have been well researched and documented. Inflation is one immediate consequence and how far and wide that goes we’ll have to see. But, a ‘localized’ offensive can have ripple effects far from its origins. Let’s look at some early observations and impacts.
The Economist looked widely at what Russia has set in train in terms of economic impacts:
Russia will turn to China for its financial needs. Already trade between the two countries has been insulated from Western sanctions https://t.co/JCiPLkXxFC
The London Times has also taken a good look. (It’s worth noting that the UK may suffer another impact as a result of oligarch finances that will be restricted:
My Sunday Times piece today: Russia will suffer the biggest economic consequences of its appalling and brutal invasion of Ukraine, but what of the wider economic impact? https://t.co/61fuxMwNy3
Access to SWIFT by Russia has now been restricted. This will brake many of its financial activities:
BREAKING: European Commission, US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada announce a commitment “to ensuring that selected Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT messaging system.”https://t.co/ZaOfmk5DHm
Though, Russia is making attempts to offset any restrictions:
Russia has attempted to limit the threat of losing access to larger payment systems such as Swift by developing its own, though it has attracted few banks outside its borders. Read the full story here: https://t.co/HJYQLBlScNpic.twitter.com/ZpMw5WnPLD
Media access for Russia is being limited as well as monetary gains from using social media, with Facebook banning Russian State media from advertising and monetizing on its platforms.
Facebook is banning all Russian state media from advertising and monetizing content on its platform.
RT, the Russia-backed media outlet infamous for promoting Vladimir Putin's talking points, has seen its influence significantly diminish in recent days as cable carriers and social media companies have taken swift measures to block its reach. https://t.co/A2DhKW3k05
The cyber hacker group, Anonymous, has ‘declared war’ on Russia:
On hacked TV transmissions #Anonymous displayed the national anthem of #Ukraine, while another video shows an electric vehicle charging station in #Moscow being hacked with anti-Russia and pro-Ukraine messages.
Wider economic impact: eg on oil and gas prices, with crude touching US$100/barrel:
Global oil prices surge above $100 for first time since 2014 after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military operation in Ukraine. https://t.co/s4jM9MYyRM
But wider impacts are coming into view, daily, with financial markets on edge:
“Economic consequences are part of this war.”
Stock markets around the world have plunged after Moscow ordered an invasion in Ukraine. @PGMcNamara takes a look at how this attack could have a “monumental” impact on the UK oil and gas prices. pic.twitter.com/D1m0XxHvSA
I was there, at Wembley, seated in a sea of blue, with my red Liverpool shirt barely peeping above my sweater. Once I realized where my seat was located, I knew that showing excitement for the Red Devils could mean a duffing over. I saw some ‘Scousers’, seated like me, given ‘the treatment’ by Chelsea fans and hurriedly leaving to find other places. That’s a part of English football fanaticism I don’t need to relive.
But, the match?
One of the best 0-0 matches you’ll ever see. Both teams had great chances, saved and missed, somehow. Both scored and had the goal disallowed. So, into extra time and still 0-0. Tired bodies and minds now had to focus on penalties: the lottery.
Amazingly, all 5 designated takers scored for each side; 5-5. Now, sudden death. Liverpool we’re kicking first, and got to 10-10! Up strode their goalie-the back-up, who had played all Carabao Cup legs-it was his tournament. He’d been stellar on the day. He was super stellar with his drilled penalty. He switched back into goal, nonchalantly. Up strode Chelsea’s back-up keeper, who’d been brought on late to be the penalty saver. He’d saved none, though got close a few times. But his kick went orbital! 11-10 to Liverpool! A record for penalties in this competition’s final.
They’ve focused on all competitions this year, even though this one has been used a lot to give the 2nd string games. Today, Liverpool fielded their strongest side, bar goalie.
I was brought up with British spelling and have stuck with it through many American assaults. However, a simple word game may force me to buckle-a word that’s spelt the same by all English speakers. Wordle, though developed by a Brit-a Welshman-favo(u)rs American spelling in offering 5 letter words. So, rumour is rumor, etc.
This has caused trans-Atlantic angst this week, along with so-called odd words like CAULK and VIVID. Fortunately, I’m conversant in both sides’ manners.
But, I’m also not going to get bent out of shape by word games. I do them and have done them for decades. Frustration is part of the riddle. Get used to it.
Having been a bit antsy about it, I’m finding it’s now a useful & appreciated distraction from the news …. But if you want stuff on longer words scroll back on my timeline or check out @susie_dent here: https://t.co/GN1FINVJTV Wordle 251 3/6
But, Wordle players are also having to find words less common on one side or the other. The most recent was BLOKE. As I’m in London as I write, it came to mind easily.
Many of us are lost for words after the events of this week. I’m not going to try to find them, today. So, take a glimpse at some pictorial representation of the war and more.
President Putin has put his plan to invade Ukrainian territory into action, using the pretext of ‘saving’ Russians there, in the Donbas region by the Ukrainian eastern border.
Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council due to the appeal by Russian occupation administrations in Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia with a request to provide them with military assistance, which is a further escalation of the security situation.
Donetsk and Luhansk, part of the Donbas region dominated by Russian-speakers, have since 2014 been controlled by separatists and so, in effect, by Russia. We explain why these regions matter https://t.co/uDcUomv2x0
Russia justified attacks in Ukraine claiming they would protect Russian citizens from "genocide."
Prior to attacks, it fast-tracked passports to 720,000 people in east Ukraine and has backed pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk since it annexed the Crimea in 2014. pic.twitter.com/2CDLAYkMBB
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia has attacked Ukraine in a “cunning way,” acting much the same as Hitler did in the Second World War, adding that "Russia is on the path of evil" https://t.co/fSBK1jO0jDpic.twitter.com/HrwpJ7qTjC
Ukraine President Zelensky: "Putin began war against Ukraine, against the entire democratic world. He wants to destroy my country, our country, everything we've been building, everything we were living for." https://t.co/Kh06gYBsaypic.twitter.com/a4Q1obf57L
Marina Litvinovich, a well-known human rights activist, posted a video on social media calling for Russians to take to the streets and protest the assault on Ukraine—but she was arrested outside her home in Moscow a short time later https://t.co/NeVqGSMsvX
Europe is bracing for what could be an exodus of more than a million refugees after Russia launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine https://t.co/pDevBBZ5mR
Western responses so far are mainly outrage sanctions:
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calls Russia's military action against Ukraine a “barbaric attack” that targets “the stability in Europe and the whole of the international peace order" https://t.co/Vcx9Db57bc
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledges that Britain and its allies will enforce a "massive package of economic sanctions" on Moscow for invading Ukraine, "designed, in time, to hobble the Russian economy" https://t.co/zFiSlOa7Nmpic.twitter.com/XxDZ2sYncC
The roots of Russian kleptocracy run deep beyond Russia's borders, particularly in the UK where oligarchs weaponize lawsuits, political influence, private intelligence and above all the West's post-Cold War prioritization of profit over values – as @tomburgis lays out here. https://t.co/hLyJeCR7pf
Prime Minister Andrew Holness called a press conference last night. He addressed matters related to the COVID containment measures. The current measures are scheduled to expire on February 24, 2022. In summary, the new measures are:
New nightly curfew – midnight to 5 a.m.
Gathering limit for funerals up from 20 people to 100.
Limit for public sector events up from 50 to 100
JamCOVID authorisation to be abandoned as of March 1.
Travel-related quarantine to be eliminated as of March 1, 2022.
The PM said the government is mindful that schools will resume full face-to-face teaching after the mid-term holidays and so it is important that there is care in lifting the measures.
All the other measures will remain unchanged for now. In three weeks when the measures announced today expire, we will undertake a further review and consider a more comprehensive removal of the measures.
Effective Tuesday, March 1, 2022, the requirement to obtain a travel authorization through the Jamcovid or Visitjamaica platforms will be eliminated. pic.twitter.com/u4qDGL0sZG
(1/2) We are very concerned that the entertainment industry has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We are sensitive to the fact that many citizens depend on this sector for their livelihoods. pic.twitter.com/Zk7IHHYfyr
In particular, I urge persons who have travelled to distance themselves from those who are most at risk – persons over 60 and persons with comorbidities.
But don’t lose sight that COVID easing may be good now for political reasons to boost the PM’s fortunes. So, too, a tough-sounding stance on Ukraine. Keep watching with care.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine a ‘flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine’ https://t.co/UBboQO6zRQpic.twitter.com/306oNCk6R3
The Queen announced recently her wish that Camilla become Queen Consort, when Charles becomes king:
ICYMI: Queen Elizabeth’s ‘sincere wish’ for Prince Charles' wife Camilla be known as Queen Consort follows an earlier era when Camilla was vilified by the tabloid press for the breakdown of Charles' marriage to his first wife, the late Princess Diana https://t.co/kXTeGyozYLpic.twitter.com/gOMSaLALMK
Prince Charles and Camilla Parker-Bowles are set to be crowned side by side during a scaled-back coronation ceremony at Westminster Abbey according to a Royal source.
The Queen celebrated her diamond jubilee, recently:
The Queen, who turns 96 in April, became the first British monarch to celebrate a Platinum Jubilee this month, marking 70 years of service.
📸 In this picture, Queen Elizabeth celebrates the start of the Jubilee during a reception in the Ballroom of Sandringham House, WPA Pool pic.twitter.com/Pv4B7V8b6W
A long-time friend and former colleague had offered me a ticket to go to watch his local team, Crystal Palace, play their Premier League (EPL) game on Saturday. First, he’d offered for February 26, versus Burnley, then in midweek said he had a ticket for February 19, versus Chelsea. Was I interested? Well, hell…Oh, of course!
It’s funny, because, as a secondary schoolboy, I had lots of associations with Chelsea FC, and would sometimes go to Stamford Bridge in the late-1960s/early-1970s with school mates after we’d played for school in the morning, during the heady days of the club with the likes of Peter Osgood, John Hollings, Ron ‘Chopper’ Harris, Charlie Cooke and Peter Bonetti. These were heady days. The League Cup was won in 1965, the FA Cup in 1970 and the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup in 1971; they were also FA Cup runners-up in 1967 and League Cup runners-up in 1972. I was a grammar school 1966-73. These were the pre-Abramovic days, when the flashiness of Chelsea and King’s Road were rearing its head, before the billionaire transformed the club into a towering figure in English football. Last week, they won the World Club Championships.
I’d never been to see Palace play. They are emerging from being one of the EPL’s ‘poor’ relatives, and in London terms were not in the top class. They are located in a touch part of south-east London, edging into suburbia. But, they have a long and interesting history.
Although formally created as a professional outfit in 1905, the club’s origins can be traced as far back as 1861, when an amateur Crystal Palace football team was established at the Crystal Palace Exhibition building, which has led to claims by the club that Crystal Palace should be recognised as the oldest professional football club in the world. Shortly after Crystal Palace returned to existence in 1905 as a professional club, they applied for election to the Football League, but were rejected and instead played in the Southern League. Palace did eventually join the Football League in 1920, and have overall spent the majority of their league history competing in the top two tiers of English football. The club achieved their highest ever league finish of third place in the old First Division, now known as the Premier League, in the 1990–91 season. Palace were unfortunate to miss out on qualification for the UEFA Cup at the end of that season due to the limited number of European places available to English clubs after the lifting of the UEFA ban caused by the Heysel Stadium disaster. It was also during this period that Palace reached the 1990 FA Cup Final losing to Manchester United after a replay, and they became founder members of the Premier League in 1992.
Following their relegation from the Premier League in 1998, Palace went into decline after suffering financial problems which resulted in the club going into administration twice in 1999 and 2010, but they recovered and returned to the Premier League in 2013 where they have remained ever since, and reached another FA Cup final in 2016, again finishing runners-up to Manchester United.
Crystal Palace have a fan base predominantly from the local area which draws on South London, Kent, and Surrey. Their original home at The Crystal Palace was on the boundary with Kent, while Selhurst Park was within Surrey’s borders until the London Government Act 1963 saw Greater London encompass Croydon. The club’s passionate support at home games-it does have a recognisably large catchment area of 900,000-emanates from the Holmesdale Road Stand, in which the ultras group the Holmesdale Fanatics have been based since 2005.
So, to the main event. It was a tight game, with few chances, but each side had good ones to score, and Chelsea did in the 2nd half, but disallowed for offside. However, they stole it in the dying minutes, 1-0.
Hakim Ziyech's last-gasp goal has settled it at Selhurst Park.#BBCFootball#CRYCHE
In the stands, it was a spirited affair, with Chelsea fans to my right and Palace fans to my left, signing and chanting against each other.
It got a bit sparky when some Palace fans found a rogue Chelsea fan in their section, and came to haul him out. “C’mon, you ****! Out!” A few stewards intervened and the ‘offensive’ visitor was taken out, under escort, and order was restored. The Palace Ultras got back to singing with more gusto.
Before the match, my mate and I had met at the Regency Cafe, for ‘breakfast’, at 11am. Well, I got there at 10.30; he didn’t arrive until after 11. When I arrived, the line for orders was about 20 long! It’s now in tourist guides, so people visiting from Asia, Europe and the USA were hoping to get a taste of traditional English breakfasts…and ‘brown sauce’:
Full English Breakfast is one of life's under-discussed pleasures and the Regency Cafe is one of greatest Greasy Spoons in the world to grab one. Whole experience is less a meal. More a validation of life 🇬🇧🇺🇸 🙌pic.twitter.com/fW8NURafuz
It was a funny bunch. I had to explain to one guy, who is studying at the LSE, that pasty (pays-tea; skin tone) and pasty (pass-tea; food) are not the same and need to be pronounced differently 🙂
Anyway, I got a cup of tea and eggs on toast, to hold hoping my friend would arrive, soon. When he did, he had to choice of eating what I had ordered or going to the back of the line. He enjoyed the eggs on toast 🙂
Recommendation- if you're ever in the Westminster area, head to the Regency Café for breakfast. Superb- particularly the bubble. It's been voted London's best breakfast, and I can see why. Now taking a stroll to London's best shop- Stanfords map shop in Covent Garden 👍🌍 pic.twitter.com/kjLEzq9hjj
But, he really wanted a full-English breakfast, so we found another cafe, nearby, and it was quieter and we had a good chance to catch up.
The irony was that this area is close where I went to grammar school, at Westminster City, so I took a little detour on my way to the Regency to pay my respects. The Regency is in an area that was off-limits when I was at school, so I never got to know it.
Jamaica: Political Economy 